If you’re anything like me, when you find a weather forecast that you like, you stick with it. Tracking this week’s snow storms has been an exercise in finger-crossing. (And today was another stormy day with fresh tracks filling in each run.) Whenever the local news stations start catching phrases like, “Storm of the Century,” “Record-breaking Snow Headed This Way,” “Carry Emergency Supplies,” we all get a little nervous up here in the mountains.
We aren’t worried that we’ll get too much snow, or that the snowplows won’t be able to keep up. That rarely happens. We worry that all the hype will jinx it.
A Pacific storm track is much like an unmanned fire hose flopping like an inch worm on Redbull. It might point North, it might aim South, but we know we’re all going to get sprayed. Right now, the models favor the Southern Cascades for Wednesday. NWAC is calling for 1.5-2 inches of water in the form of snow at Crystal (which could be upwards of 24 inches) by Thursday morning at 4am. While the freezing level for the Central Cascades will stay very low, it will rise in the Southern Cascades, drawing a distinct boundary between the arctic air and the warm front bringing the moisture.
The forecast I’m sticking with (see below) says Crystal will stay cold but get the moisture. So far, the forecast is on track. See Crystal’s telemetry for the latest totals. And prepare for the onslaught. Wednesday could be the POWDER DAY OF THE CENTURY. But I hate to say I told you so.